Flat anime sales in the U.S. and European
markets, sales hurt by the easy access to fansub torrents, and exchange
rate shifts that have cut the value of the dollar worldwide -- those
are the major factors in the Japanese animation industry, according to
Matt Greenfield of ADV Films. When he spoke about the state of the
industry on Ikkicon's final day, Greenfield said that Japanese
animation has been through previous up-and-down cycles, beginning in
the 1980's with the first rise of home video caused by the availability
of video cassette recorders. That changed the industry from a group of
companies making TV shows that essentially were toy commercials to
groups that made shows for home video release, shows that found new
audiences in -- and income from -- the U.S. and Europe, Greenfield
said. That era ended when sales of the new-concept OVA's slowed, but
sakes increased again when the quality of the remaining TV series
increased and those series were attractive to buyers outside of Japan.
But now, "Sales in the U.S. have not dropped but they haven't risen (at
a rate comparable to the fandom itself). There's pretty much been
steady growth." Greenfield later noted that that growth is only a
fraction of the overall growth of anime viewership, as measured against
the explosive growth of illegal downloads via bit torrents and YouTube,
which according to the Japanese government's Task Force on Media
Content Business and Japanese Brands is now in the range of 6 million
downloads a week. This comes, he noted, at a time when the actual cost
of producing and distributing anime, both in the U.S. and Japan, has
continued to rise. And, "The dollar is low, so an American
company has to pay more." With the same number of dollars with less
value being spent on anime in U.S., Japanese companies make less from
American sales, and Greenfield points to fansubs and torrent
distribution as one reason. "Fansubbing has been hurting the industry
tremendously," he said. "They're going to kill the market to a very
great extent, and once they're out there they can't be pulled back."
"This is pre-empting the existing market,"
continued Greenfield. "We don't sell a DVD, we sell the experience of
watching that show. When that's given away for free, the experience is
no longer there." A typical episode of an anime series costs around
$250,000 U.S. to produce, Greenfield said, but flat sales cut by
fansubs have damaged the Japanese producers' chance to make that money
back through overseas sales. Those producers are having second thought
about making the series, he said, claiming that they're thinking
"...why should we be Santa Claus, why should we make something for
which we won't make any money? You're going to see fewer anime shows
made every year until you see a stabilization...it's not to say that
the anime industry is going to collapse, but were going to go through a
fallow period where there aren't going to be as many shows. A lot of
the key people are leaving the industry and going into video games."
American animator Samantha Inoue-Harte added that she's heard
from her Japanese counterparts
who have lost their jobs and are begging her studio for sub-contract
work since the anime market is slowing down, and she further elaborated
that most of what she’s been able to send them is cereal commercials.
While fansubbers
like to think they're producing translations that are better than the
ones made by commercial importers, Greenfield said there's disdain for
many of those translations in the Japanese industry. The fansubbers are
called "book boys" because their versions sound as if they come from
translation books rather than someone who is fluent in both English and
Japanese, Greenfield said, also noting that the good fansub translators
have found jobs with anime importers. He also questioned the real
fandom of the fansubbers, saying that in the cases where Japanese
producers have asked fansubbers to stop, they've been rejected,
sometimes profanely. "We like to think of fans as being supportive of
the industry, but there are people who are antagonistic toward the
industry," Greenfield said.
Flat anime sales in the U.S. and European
markets, sales hurt by the easy access to fansub torrents, and exchange
rate shifts that have cut the value of the dollar worldwide -- those
are the major factors in the Japanese animation industry, according to
Matt Greenfield of ADV Films. When he spoke about the state of the
industry on Ikkicon's final day, Greenfield said that Japanese
animation has been through previous up-and-down cycles, beginning in
the 1980's with the first rise of home video caused by the availability
of video cassette recorders. That changed the industry from a group of
companies making TV shows that essentially were toy commercials to
groups that made shows for home video release, shows that found new
audiences in -- and income from -- the U.S. and Europe, Greenfield
said. That era ended when sales of the new-concept OVA's slowed, but
sakes increased again when the quality of the remaining TV series
increased and those series were attractive to buyers outside of Japan.
But now, "Sales in the U.S. have not dropped but they haven't risen (at
a rate comparable to the fandom itself). There's pretty much been
steady growth." Greenfield later noted that that growth is only a
fraction of the overall growth of anime viewership, as measured against
the explosive growth of illegal downloads via bit torrents and YouTube,
which according to the Japanese government's Task Force on Media
Content Business and Japanese Brands is now in the range of 6 million
downloads a week. This comes, he noted, at a time when the actual cost
of producing and distributing anime, both in the U.S. and Japan, has
continued to rise. And, "The dollar is low, so an American
company has to pay more." With the same number of dollars with less
value being spent on anime in U.S., Japanese companies make less from
American sales, and Greenfield points to fansubs and torrent
distribution as one reason. "Fansubbing has been hurting the industry
tremendously," he said. "They're going to kill the market to a very
great extent, and once they're out there they can't be pulled back."
"This is pre-empting the existing market,"
continued Greenfield. "We don't sell a DVD, we sell the experience of
watching that show. When that's given away for free, the experience is
no longer there." A typical episode of an anime series costs around
$250,000 U.S. to produce, Greenfield said, but flat sales cut by
fansubs have damaged the Japanese producers' chance to make that money
back through overseas sales. Those producers are having second thought
about making the series, he said, claiming that they're thinking
"...why should we be Santa Claus, why should we make something for
which we won't make any money? You're going to see fewer anime shows
made every year until you see a stabilization...it's not to say that
the anime industry is going to collapse, but were going to go through a
fallow period where there aren't going to be as many shows. A lot of
the key people are leaving the industry and going into video games."
American animator Samantha Inoue-Harte added that she's heard
from her Japanese counterparts
who have lost their jobs and are begging her studio for sub-contract
work since the anime market is slowing down, and she further elaborated
that most of what she’s been able to send them is cereal commercials.
While fansubbers
like to think they're producing translations that are better than the
ones made by commercial importers, Greenfield said there's disdain for
many of those translations in the Japanese industry. The fansubbers are
called "book boys" because their versions sound as if they come from
translation books rather than someone who is fluent in both English and
Japanese, Greenfield said, also noting that the good fansub translators
have found jobs with anime importers. He also questioned the real
fandom of the fansubbers, saying that in the cases where Japanese
producers have asked fansubbers to stop, they've been rejected,
sometimes profanely. "We like to think of fans as being supportive of
the industry, but there are people who are antagonistic toward the
industry," Greenfield said.
